Hillsborough CA Market Analytics
Geoffrey Nelson's Hillsborough Annual Analytics 2012
A bravo performance for 2012 and even more promise as we embrace the Spring 2013 market….For 2012, our Hillsborough real estate market recorded its highest total sales volume since 2005. The $415,489,406 total volume was up substantially from 2011, and at the highest level since 2005’s $421,470,933. Median Sales price was up from 2011, Average Sales Price up Average Price per Sq. Ft. was up, and days on market were down. Perhaps most impressively and presciently, Q4 2012 posted strong momentum, both on and off the market. High-end sales over $4,000,000 perked up, with at least 3 luxury homes over $4M selling off-market in Q4 for top dollar, ranging from $4,500,000 - $6,825,000. Selling at the tail end of Q4, and closing February 2013, we had a $13,000,000 transaction on Ralston Avenue’s “New Mansion Row” area, in addition to another Ralston home that went pending over $10,000,000. For those sales recorded through MLS, I was fortunate to have represented the #1 Hillsborough Sale for 2012 on Fagan Drive. Designed by Arthur Brown Jr. originally as the circa-1917 carriage house for the Paul Fagan Estate, this home sold over its asking price of $4,950,000, with multiple offers closing at $5,290,000. I also represented the buyer this January of a classic Lower Hillsborough 1-acre estate listed at $8,350,000.
In the perennially tight $2,000,000 - $3,000,000 range, multiple offers and over-asking performances were prevalent. Several examples including those on Summerholme, Pepper, Marialinda, Greenview, and others, sold quickly for their land, locations, and upside potential. The competitive climate due to limited prime inventory and increased buyer confidence was reflected by the Average Days on Market being just 68 days, as compared to 2010’s 90 Days or 2011’s 73 days. And where are the buyers coming from? We saw high demand from San Francisco’s financial-sector buyer, and also traction from Silicon Valley buyers such as Facebook, or company founders having just sold their companies, and also venture capitalists. This buyer profile continues to value the strength of Hillsborough schools, the easy SF commute, synergy with the downtowns of Burlingame and San Mateo, and the relative “value” compared to markets of Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and Atherton. Buyers from within Hillsborough, Burlingame, and San Mateo increasingly perceived 2012 as an opportune time to invest in a Hillsborough home. In addition, the overseas buyer continued to demonstrate liquidity and a desire to “park” money in the solid investment of real estate.
Low interest rates and the prevalence of cash buyers will converge on a marketplace of slim availability.The 2013 market should prove competitive, brisk, and poised to again decrease its days on market with listings selling even faster. Scarce inventory will be the challenge for buyers, as well as the opportunity for sellers. As always, my business approach excels with off-market, non-MLS intelligence. I am constantly networking and researching these off-the-radar properties to show my buyers. I also maintain a log of off-market transactions for the purpose of having the most astute metrics on sales comparables. I look forward to again elevating the success of my clients with the highest caliber of Hillsborough real estate service. Thank you again for your trust and referrals.
-Geoffrey Nelson, March 2013
| Hillsborough Real Estate Year over Year Sales Comparison | |||||||
Year |
Total Sales |
Avg. Sales Price |
Median Sales Price |
Avg. $ per Sq. Ft. |
% List Price Achieved |
Avg. DOM |
Total MLS Sales Volume |
| 2012 | 149 | $2,865,444 | $2,750,000 | $715 | 96.48% | 68 | $415,489,406 |
| 2011 | 137 | $2,627,551 | $2,200,000 | $697 | 95% | 73 | $352,091,813 |
| 2010 | 125 | $2,718,857 | $2,375,000 | $679 | 94% | 91 | $339,857,100 |
| 2009 | 100 | $2,738,331 | $2,335,000 | $684 | 94% | 77 | $273,833,088 |
| 2008 | 94 | $3,035,748 | $2,507,500 | $789 | 96% | 48 | $285,360,358 |
| 2007 | 127 | $2,959,768 | $2,600,000 | $791 | 96% | 69 | $375,890,530 |
| 2006 | 123 | $2,963,690 | $2,500,000 | $787 | 97% | 69 | $364,533,850 |
| 2005 | 152 | $2,772,835 | $2,500,000 | $723 | 98% | 56 | $421,470,933 |
DOM=Days on Market. Data per RE Infolink MLS Listings and SAMCAR. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed, and reflects only those single-family sales reported to MLS. |
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Here is the Market Summary excerpt from Geoffrey Nelson's 2010 Hillsborough Annual Analytics Report, published Feburary 2010:
HILLSBOROUGH HOMEOWNER’S UPDATE: 2010 positively reinforced the market's continued recovery and stabilization with increased volume and encouraging activity from key buyer demographics. If December/January is any indication of the spring market to come, the numbers were inspired: from Dec. 1, 2010 - Jan. 31, 2011, a solid 24 Hillsborough listings went sale pending, including some with multiple offers and one closing at over $1,000 per sq. ft. For this same period last year (12/1/09-1/31/10) there were 16 sales. Increased confidence at all price points was evidenced from Hillsborough's key buyer demographics:
- Families, couples, and individuals coming down from San Francisco
- Move-up buyers from surrounding areas such as San Mateo and Burlingame
- Hillsborough homeowners scaling up or scaling down within Hillsborough
- Incoming executives for industries such as biotech, high tech, and investing
- Overseas buyers in increasingly liquid positions
Beyond the post-Lehman Bros. fallout and TARP phases of 2008 and 2009, the year 2010 and thus far 2011 have proven healthy transitional periods in getting buyers back into the marketplace, perceiving values, and more fundamentally, getting them off the sidelines and on with their lives. This is reflected by 2010's 125 total Hillsborough sales with total volume of $339,857,100, the best output since 2007, and in fact shadowing 2006's 123 sales and $364,533,850 in total volume. By comparison, 2005 embodied the old seller's market posting 152 sales and $421,470,933 in total volume. 2010 off-market activity,although not reported in MLS,was also steady. In our new adjusted market, the capabilities of the Realtor have never been more critical. World-class marketing plans, effective negotiating, connectivity with buyer profiles, and off-market networking are just some of the driving forces that influence success in this new sales environment. I look forward to demonstrating these strategic virtues and much more should you consider buying or selling in Hillsborough this year. For over 100 years,Hillsborough has been one of the most desirable communities in the country. The neighborhood synergy of top schools, sophisticated estates, and proximity to hallmarks of technology, finance, and education continues to inspire high demand from home buyers. With demand on the rise, and supply not burgeoning, I look forward to another promising year in Hillsborough real estate.
Best Regards,
Geoffrey Nelson
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"For 2012, the Hillsborough CA real estate market posted some of the strongest sales analytics since the 2005 peak market. With inventory tight on quality offerings, and liquidity, interest rates, and confidence all increasingly favorable, the Hillsborough market is poised for perhaps its most exceptional year in the last decade."
